Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Breyerfest 2017 Special Run Predictions

Now that we're starting to see Breyerfest 2017 special runs, it's time for me to make some (probably incorrect) predictions about what models we'll end up seeing as Breyerfest SRs. This post will cover special run line items; I'll save other stuff for a later date so this post isn't a mile long.

Firstly,  we can discount any mold that was used last year. So Make a Wish, Silver, Wyatt, Bobby Jo, Forever Saige, Esprit, Hermosa/Corazon and the Brahma Bull are all out. It's probably safe to discount any molds from the 2015 special run line as well, so Huck, Lonesome Glory, Wixom, Croi, Ashquar, the Spanish Fighting Bull, Totilas and the Marwari are out as well (not that anyone thought Marwari or the bulls would be in this year's special run line).

From yesterday's sneak peek, we know that one of the SRs will be on Geronimo. Breyer has established a pattern of using a previous year's Premier mold for at least one Breyerfest SR, and he fulfills that pattern. However, I and a lot of others assumed Yasmin would be used for Breyerfest. Last year's special run line had all three of the previous year's Premier molds in the lineup, so it's still safe to assume Yasmin will also show up in the special run line. As for the animal mold, prevailing opinion says they will use the Elephant, and I have no reason to doubt that.

Last year's Breyerfest had a total of four Premier Club molds in the lineup, including all three of 2015's, so I think it's completely possible we could see a third Premier mold show up. I think Shannondell would be the obvious choice, because he hasn't been used for anything else yet - it's been a while since we've had a mold debut in the Premier Club and then not go into the regular run lineup the following year or be used as a Breyerfest special run (I believe Ashquar would be the most recent example, and even he languished unused until the fall of 2014).

So that's four possibilities, out of a presumed total of eight. Another would be Smarty Jones, using the polo pony configuration; India has a strong connection with polo (apparently modern polo comes from India - thanks, Wikipedia!). The last time Smarty Jones appeared in the Breyerfest lineup was 2007's Rushmore (excluding the 2012 raffle and 2016 Early Bird, both as polo ponies, interestingly enough), so I think he'd be a safe choice.

I'm not sure if we'll get a mare and foal set or not - we don't see one every year. Here's a quick list of the past few years:
2010 - Stage Mom and Child Star
2011 - Hansel and Gretel
2012 - none
2013 - Naomi and Wynonna
2014 - Kodiak and Denali (bears)
2015 - none
2016 - Mamacita and Chico
So it might be safe to assume we won't get a mare and foal set. Which molds would they use, anyway? The most likely candidates would be Giselle and Gilen, unless they Frankenstein together a random mare and random foal. Marabella and Amber, perhaps? The number of foal molds likely to actually get used is fairly small. Bluegrass Bandit and Gilen, maybe? I mean, they might use the Thoroughbred Mare and Nursing Foal, which I wouldn't be opposed to, but it doesn't seem likely. There are Thoroughbred horses in India, though (legacy of its history as a British colony?), so it might be doable.

...Actually, I like that. I'm going to add the Thoroughbred Mare and Nursing Foal to my list as the mare and foal set.

So that just leaves the decorator and the surprise. I have no clue what a decorator relating to India would look like - perhaps something similar to last year's surprise Esprit decorator, except with mandalas? I would think it would be something brightly colored, maybe with henna-like designs. It might be on the Brishen mold, if we think Breyer will use four Premier molds again. Or maybe a Goffert, since he hasn't been used at Breyerfest since 2014, and not in the special run line since 2010? I wouldn't mind seeing a Ruffian either, though, and she was last in the special run line in 2007. So many possibilities! I think Brishen will go on my final list, though.

As for the surprise, the precedent for most, if not all, previous surprise models has been that it's something that doesn't get used anywhere else in the lineup, not even as an auction model (excluding Ethereal, from 2011). Here's a quick listing of the previous surprise models:

2009 - Quarter Horse Gelding
2010 - none
2011 - Ethereal (the one exception)
2012 - Flash
2013 - Roxy
2014 - Nokota
2015 - Lonesome Glory
2016 - Esprit
My gut feeling for this year's surprise model is the Moody Andalusian. Not real sure why, except the lineup usually includes at least two Moody molds and I only have one so far. We'll see if the Andy shows up in some other capacity this year - until then, he's on the list. So, here's my final list:

Geronimo (already more-or-less revealed)
Smarty Jones
Thoroughbred Mare/Nursing Foal
Andalusian Stallion
As for what colors any of these will come in...I have no idea.'s another list.
Geronimo - dun
Yasmin - gray (glossy)
Shannondell - bay with more sabino than Shannondell?
Elephant - more-different gray? Or white? (glossy)
Smarty - Chestnut pinto
TB Mare/Foal - Black/baby bay (matte/glossy split)
Brishen - already covered (glossy)
Andy - buckskin, red dun, dapple gray frame overo, red bay tobiano, in matte/glossy finishes

Probably terribly, horribly wrong on those, but time will tell. Hopefully some of these turn out to be correct, but if not - oh well. Breyerfest is hands-down my favorite event of the year, so as long as I get to attend I'll be happy. Hopefully we get to find out more soon!

Edited 2/5/2017 to add matte/glossy finishes and the matte/glossy split to the color predictions.


  1. I like your picks, they make sense. It will be fun to see how close you got. I hope you're wrong about the
    Moody Andalusian being the surprise model though. Pandemonium would ensue. Maybe even bloodshed. Ha. Not sure I'm 100% joking there.

  2. I don't think the Moody Andy is quite as fervently popular as, say, Silver or Othello, but would be hell on my pocketbook. We might be better off hoping for something slightly more mundane, like the Show Jumping Warmblood or Ruffian. I'd say Sue Sifton is definitely due for another one. ;)