Looking to the Future: 2022 Vintage Club

 Huh...I guess I kinda forgot about writing this year's Vintage Club speculation post - until now. Oh well - better late than never. Much of this post will be cribbed from previous posts on the subject, just as an FYI. Despite my dubious prediction ability, I will once again attempt to predict what molds we'll see in the 2022 Vintage Club. Well, let's get this show on the road! 

This photo is so old, it's probably not worth bothering with anymore, but I'll put it up just the same:

So far, club members have seen the following models from the photo above:

Amigo, the charcoal Adios;
Halo, the Appaloosa-Performance-Horse-colorway on the Stretch Morgan;
Commander, the smoke Five Gaiter;
Denim (Diamonds?), the Copenhagen pinto Shetland Pony;
and Kiowa, the Indian Pony pinto on the Jumping Horse mold.
Also, the glossy palomino Semi-Rearing Mustang was one of the losers in the vote that gave us Tanner.

Molds that appear in the photo, but were used in the VC in other colors, include the Running Stallion, Man o' War, Quarter Horse Gelding, the Belgian (twice), Semi-Rearing Mustang, Fighting Stallion (twice), Running Foal (with Mare), the Western Prancing Horse, the Grazing Mare (with Foal), the Western Horse and the Thoroughbred Mare and Foal.

So really, all of those molds have been used by now, with the exception of the Longhorn Bull, and I doubt he'll ever show up - but you never know. 

These are the vintage Breyer molds that haven't been used in the club yet. I removed the Appaloosa Performance Horse and Smoky as they're being used or presumably being used in 2022:

Black Beauty, the Black Stallion, Bolya/Halla,  Buckshot, the Donkey, El Pastor, the FAM and FAF, the Fury Prancer, Galiceno, Haflinger, the Hanoverian, Justin Morgan, the Lying Down Foal, Midnight Sun, Morganglanz, Phantom Wings, Phar Lap, the POA, possibly the PAF, Quarter Horse Yearling, the Race Horse, Saddlebred Weanling, the Scratching Foal, Sea Star, the Stock Horse Stallion, Mare and Foal, Stud Spider, the Trakehner and the Western Pony.

So, with the APH and Smoky already in the lineup, that leaves one vintage mold and probably one modern mold with a vintage paint job, plus the optional model. The remaining vintage mold is probably the gambler's choice release, so I think I'm going to go with Justin Morgan in an array of vintage colors and Vermeer (Noooooo!) as the optional model. 

Lastly, there's the Stablemate. They seem to be more-or-less alternating between old and new molds with those, so my guess is the G1 Morgan Mare.

Hopefully we only have to wait a few more weeks to find out if I'm at least in the ballpark with these guesses! I really should have written this earlier...

Looking to the Future: 2021 Vintage Club

 Hello, readers! Welp, it's time for some more bad Vintage Club predictions. At least I'm getting this done earlier than I did last year, eh? I blame the video games. But anyway - in this post I'll attempt to predict which molds will be used in next year's Vintage Club. Some of this post is copy/pasted from previous posts on the matter, so if it seems familiar, that's why. 

I'm not sure if this photo is even relevant any more, since it's so old, but I'll post it anyway:




So far, club members have seen the following models from the photo above:

Amigo, the charcoal Adios;
Halo, the Appaloosa-Performance-Horse-colorway on the Stretch Morgan;
Commander, the smoke Five Gaiter;
Denim (Diamonds?), the Copenhagen pinto Shetland Pony;
and Kiowa, the Indian Pony pinto on the Jumping Horse mold.
Also, the glossy palomino Semi-Rearing Mustang was one of the losers in the vote that gave us Tanner.

Molds that appear in the photo, but were used in the VC in other colors, include the Running Stallion, Man o' War, Quarter Horse Gelding, the Belgian (twice), Semi-Rearing Mustang, Fighting Stallion (twice), Running Foal (with Mare), the Western Prancing Horse, the Grazing Mare (with Foal), the Western Horse and the Thoroughbred Mare and Foal.

These are the vintage Breyer molds that haven't been used in the club yet:

Appaloosa Performance Horse, Black Beauty, the Black Stallion, Bolya/Halla, Brighty, Buckshot, the Donkey, El Pastor, the FAM and FAF, the Foundation Stallion, the Fury Prancer, Galiceno, Haflinger, the Hanoverian, Justin Morgan, the Lying Down Foal, Midnight Sun, Morganglanz, Phantom Wings, Phar Lap, the POA, possibly the PAF, Quarter Horse Yearling, the Race Horse, Saddlebred Weanling, the Scratching Foal, Sea Star, Smoky, the Stock Horse Stallion, Mare and Foal, Stud Spider, the Trakehner and the Western Pony.

For reason that should be obvious by now, I think Midnight Sun, the Donkey, Sea Star and Phantom Wings can all be eliminated from contention, and I don't think we'll ever see the Race Horse or the Fury Prancer show up either.

I'm completely at a loss as to what to predict for next year, since the Western Horse finally showed up in the club. Seems like the trend for the last couple of years has been to use a newer mold in the lineup and as the optional fifth model, so for those I'm going to predict Forever Saige in the normal lineup (as a nod to her resemblance to Buckshot), and True North as the optional model. As for the other three releases...it could really be anything. I'm going to go with Justin Morgan and the Hanoverian as the normal releases and the FAM/FAF as the gambler's choice. I also wouldn't mind seeing Adios again in a fresh new color. Are those good predictions? I guess we'll find out. 

As for the Stablemate, they seem to be alternating between G1 and newer molds, so I'm going to guess the G2 Morgan for randomness's sake. 

More 2020 Breyerfest predictions

Well, it looks like I'm batting about 50/50 on special run reveals this year - we've seen four of them so far and I correctly predicted one of them - or two, if you count my "a bull" guess as technically correct for Hamish. So what else is there? We've now seen two store specials as well - Benelli and the palomino pinto Brishen. So what else is there? Plenty - and I'll do my best to keep my guesses realistic. I did some copy/pasting from old predictions posts to save on time, so if anything looks familiar, that's probably why.

This post will cover the rest of the special runs typically seen at Breyerfest, like the single-day Stablemates, prize models, pop-up-tent stuff, etc.

One more store special on Hamilton? Pretty please?

Raffle models: Altynai, Dundee

Diorama contest prize: Black Beauty

Live show glossy prizes: Truly Unsurpassed, Buckeye

Live show reserve grand: Forever Saige
Live show grand: San Domingo

Custom contest grand prize: Hamilton in chestnut
Custom contest runners-up Stablemates: Charleston in chestnut, possibly glossy

The costume contest isn't happening this year - glossy Ballynoe Castle models will be raffled off at the Friday and Saturday shows instead, and presumably three of them will be given to the custom contest judges as usual

1-Day Stablemates: With how draft-heavy this Breyerfest is turning out to be, I'm wondering if they'll do all draft models for the one-day Stablemates again. They did that in 2012, though, and there aren't a whole lot of drafters that haven't already been used. So, I'm thinking maybe Corbin, the G3 Jumper, Django and the G3 Highland Pony.

Volunteer Model: Desatado

Crystal horse: Bouncer

Pop-up Tent Classic: Brabant/Mighty Muscle

Pop-up Tent Stablemate: Darley, just for confusion's sake. We have to have something that wildly doesn't match the theme, right?

That's all I have for now - let's hope I'm right about at least some of them!

Breyerfest 2020 Predictions

Wow, I guess I'm getting an early start on Breyerfest predictions this year. Well, when you're plowing through the winter doldrums (and snow), you have to liven things up somehow. So let's get cracking! I did do some copy/pasting from my old predictions posts here, so if anything looks familiar, that's probably why.

I'm not terribly good at predicting things in advance, especially since Breyer likes to play fast and loose with their "themes." But I'll give it my best shot!

While none of this year's eight releases for the special run line have been revealed, it's safe to assume there'll  be at least one or two Premier Club molds in the mix. It's glaringly obvious that Rhian and Cadell, the Welsh mare and foal set from last year, will appear. Georg will probably appear as well - but not Hamilton, since the rumor is he'll appear as one of the store specials. We can definitely count on not seeing any molds used in the last two years, so that knocks  Flash, the Elk, Smarty Jones, Ruffian, Duende, Carina and Selene, the Proud Arabian Mare, Lonesome Glory, Emerson, Weather Girl, the St. Bernard, the American Saddlebred Stallion, the Moody Andalusian, Roxy, Smart Chic Olena and the Clydesdale Mare out of contention.

If Rhian and Cadell are used, they'll fulfill the mare and foal set that usually - but not always - appears at Breyerfest, so I won't speculate much about that.

I'm guessing the decorator will be something green with shamrocks or Celtic motifs. Maybe on Ethereal? He hasn't been used at Breyerfest since 2011, so it's possible.

As for the animal mold, the prevailing thought online is that it'll be some kind of bull, which I'd agree with - I don't know if any of Breyer's other animal molds would really fit the theme - not that Breyer really adheres to it that much. Or possibly a deer family? It doesn't seem likely, but you never know.

So that's four of the eight. What else? I'm ruling out Brishen for the special run line, since I already predicted Georg and I don't think we'd see two draft models. We still need a vintage mold, though - maybe the Jumping Horse, as some kind of Irish Thoroughbred? Or possibly the Cantering Welsh Pony. Seems weak, but nothing else is really coming to mind. What more recent molds might appear? Possibly Idocus? There's not a whole lot to choose from that fits the theme - not that Breyer cares, since they can just do whatever mold they want and give it some vaguely-Celtic name afterward. Not that I'm bitter or anything. I think I'll throw Big Ben in there just for kicks.

All that leaves us is the surprise model. Here's a list of previous surprises:

2009 - Quarter Horse Gelding
2010 - none
2011 - Ethereal
2012 - Flash
2013 - Roxy
2014 - Nokota
2015 - Lonesome Glory
2016 - Esprit
2017 - Latigo
2018 - Smarty Jones
2019 - Moody Andalusian

The surprise model is usually something that appeared in the live auction the previous year, but Breyer broke this streak last year  by using the Moody Andalusian. Will they go back to the formula this year? Maybe they realized we figured it out, so they had to go in a different direction. I guess I'll just try to pull something from the auction models as usual.

After taking a quick look at the 2019 auction models, I definitely think Croi is at the top of the list. She's popular, but not enough to cause fistfights in the special run line like a lot of newer molds, Othello or Silver. Other contenders include Bobby Jo, Ruffian, Goffert and maybe Totilas - wow, a short list this year. So that's why I'm thinking Croi, since there isn't a whole lot to choose from. Or maybe Brishen? Personally I hope it's Croi, since I wouldn't need any of them.

Here's a recap of what I have so far:

Rhian and Cadell
Georg
Ethereal
A bull (Charolais?)
Cantering Welsh Pony
Idocus
Big Ben
Croi for the surprise

I don't even want to venture a guess as to what color any of them will be, except for the aforementioned green and Celtic for the decorator and the usual surprise formula of solid, pinto, another pinto, Appaloosa, maybe a decorator.

So, that's all I have for today - hopefully they don't make us wait too long for another reveal. Otherwise, it's going to be a long, cold, boring winter!

Looking to the Future: 2020 Vintage Club

Hello, readers! It's time for another list of bad Vintage Club predictions, so here goes! This is really late this year, but I've been pretty busy the last few months, so I figure better late than never, right? Some of this is copy/pasted from previous posts on the subject, so beware!

I'm not sure if this photo is even relevant any more, since it's so old, but I'll post it anyway:




So far, club members have seen the following models from the photo above:

Amigo, the charcoal Adios;
Halo, the Appaloosa-Performance-Horse-colorway on the Stretch Morgan;
Commander, the smoke Five Gaiter;
Denim (Diamonds?), the Copenhagen pinto Shetland Pony;
and Kiowa, the Indian Pony pinto on the Jumping Horse mold.
Also, the glossy palomino Semi-Rearing Mustang was one of the losers in the vote that gave us Tanner.

Molds that appear in the photo, but were used in the VC in other colors, include the Running Stallion, Man o' War, Quarter Horse Gelding, the Belgian, Semi-Rearing Mustang, Fighting Stallion (twice!), Running Foal (with Mare), the Western Prancing Horse, the Grazing Mare (with Foal) and the Thoroughbred Mare and Foal (not in glossy alabaster, sadly).

The only molds left from the photo that haven't been used are the Longhorn Bull and the Western Horse, but we know from that teaser a month or so ago that the Western Horse is finally making an appearance. Why is the Longhorn Bull even in the photo? Who knows.

This year's Vintage Club has been more or less a return to normal, aside from using Shannondell as the "optional" (as if anyone would skip him) release. But they're switching up his release by doing most of them as a glossy charcoal, while 30 of them will be matte. Honestly, I'd rather have a glossy one myself - I've never been a fan of matte charcoal, and the blacker the better - I don't like the brown tones that can appear in charcoal as well. Not that it matters, since I don't collect Shannondell, but there it is.

These are the vintage Breyer molds that haven't been used in the club yet:

Appaloosa Performance Horse, Black Beauty, the Black Stallion, Bolya/Halla, Brighty, Buckshot, the Donkey, El Pastor, the FAM and FAF, the Foundation Stallion, the Fury Prancer, Galiceno, Haflinger, the Hanoverian, Justin Morgan, the Lying Down Foal, Midnight Sun, Morganglanz, Phantom Wings, Phar Lap, the POA, possibly the PAF, Quarter Horse Yearling, the Race Horse, Saddlebred Weanling, the Scratching Foal, Sea Star, Smoky, the Stock Horse Stallion, Mare and Foal, Stud Spider, the Trakehner, the Western Horse and the Western Pony.

For reason that should be obvious by now, I think Midnight Sun, the Donkey, Sea Star and Phantom Wings can all be eliminated from contention. I'm iffy about Bolya/Halla being used either, as the mold has been permanently altered from its Halla configuration. Does its '90s iteration still count as vintage? Who knows.

So what molds are we expecting to see next year? We already know the Western Horse is finally showing up - I suppose I should have expected that, since he's Breyer's oldest mold and 2020 is the company's 70th anniversary. I wonder if they'll sneak in some kind of rare variation to celebrate that? The release is glossy chestnut if I remember right, so maybe they'll leave 70 of them matte, or do an alternate color or something. As for the remaining vintage molds that haven't been used yet...well, most of them aren't terribly popular. I'm going to predict El Pastor and Stud Spider, for starters - El Pastor was a web special this year, and Stud Spider might be vaguely popular enough to be worth using. I don't know what to predict for the fourth model - some kind of gambler's choice on the FAM/FAF? That could be fun. If they keep with the pattern of using a modern mold for the optional model (they seem to go back and forth on that one), I'm going to go with Desatado, just to throw something random out there.

As for the Stablemate, it's anyone's guess. Now that we've seen this year's G1 Quarter Horse Mare (Misty) and the G3 Warmblood Foal (Stormy), I feel like it could go either way. Maybe the G1 Saddlebred, as a reference to some old Five Gaiter?

That's all my predictions for this year. Although I'm glad they finally used the Thoroughbred Mare and Foal this year, I'll be forever sad about not getting them in glossy alabaster...

Even More Bad Breyerfest Predictions

Hello, everyone! It's time for a woefully late post about Breyerfest predictions! I meant to get this done a long time ago, but I guess life got in the way again. So, without further ado...my predictions for this year!

This post will cover the rest of the special runs typically seen at Breyerfest, like the single-day Stablemates, prize models, pop-up-tent stuff, etc.

The raffle models have already been revealed, so I don't need to worry about guessing the wrong things and embarrassing myself yet again! Huzzah!

The diorama contest prize has also been revealed! He's Cavalcade on the Haflinger mold.

Live show glossy prizes: EZ to Spot, Enzo (lulz)

Live show reserve grand: Latigo
Live show grand: Nokota

Custom contest grand prize: Emerson in bay
Custom contest runners-up Stablemates: Darwin in bay, possibly glossy

Costume contest prize: glossy Oliver (as usual)

1-Day Stablemates: I'm thinking decorators this year, in bright colors. Think yellow Spandex and/or bright green. Molds: G3 Rearing Andalusian, G4 Arabian, Django and the G3 Jumper.

Volunteer Model: Croi

Crystal horse: Ashquar

Pop-up Tent Classic: Mason

Pop-up Tent Stablemate: Magnolia, because she's everywhere lately.

That's all I've got for now. I'm excited to see this year's single-day Stablemates- I think they're going to be really special! Hopefully we don't have to wait too much longer to see them.

Breyerfest 2019 Special Run Predictions

Guess what time it is! That's right - Breyerfest prediction time! Ha, and I thought last year's post was late. At least that one was still in February! I guess that's what happens when life decides to come at you fast.

Anyway, I don't have the greatest record for predicting things at Breyerfest, but I'm going to give it my best shot regardless. So, here goes! As usual, these predictions will focus only on the special run line items to keep it from getting too long.

Three - soon to be four - of this year's special runs have already been revealed. They are Pepper (Clydesdale Mare), Quill (Smart Chic Olena) and Diana (Roxy). With the soon-to-be-revealed animal mold included, that leaves five other possible choices. Interestingly, we haven't seen any of last year's Premier Club molds yet - when they're usually the first to be revealed. Will we see any PC molds in the lineup this year? It's anyone's guess. We can definitely count on not seeing any molds used in the last two years, so that knocks Rejoice, the Cow, Latigo, the Semi-Rearing Mustang, Valegro, Shannondell, Yasmin, Flash, the Elk, Smarty Jones, Ruffian, Duende, Carina and Selene, the Proud Arabian Mare and Lonesome Glory out of contention.

Although we haven't seen any of them revealed yet, it's probably a safe guess that we'll see some of last year's Premier Club molds in the special run line. As a refresher, those molds were Bristol, Dundee and Emerson. The mysterious bay Bristol that appeared in that terrible YouTube video a few months back still hasn't been revealed, but most people on the Internets seem to think he'll be a store special, so I'll leave him out of these predictions. I still think it's safe to say we'll see Dundee and Emerson in the special run line, though.

As for the mare and foal set, here's a quick rundown of previous years' mare and foal special runs:

2010 - Stage Mom and Child Star
2011 - Hansel and Gretel (classics)
2012 - none
2013 - Naomi and Wynonna
2014 - Kodiak and Denali (bears)
2015 - none
2016 - Mamacita and Chico
2017 - none
2018 - Julep and Pim

We don't always get a mare and foal set every year, so this might be a year they skip that. If they don't, I have no idea what molds they would use or names they would give them. I don't know enough about comic book characters to speculate about mother-child pairs that would work. Maybe they'll do something generic? All of the special runs we've seen so far were direct references to comic book characters, though, so who knows. I'm going to err on the side of predicting we won't see a mare and foal set this year, but I could be wrong.

I'm sure the decorator will be something fun - comic book characters are well-known for their colorful spandex outfits that would never work in real life, so I'm sure we'll see something along those lines. Maybe on the Moody Andalusian? He's wild and crazy enough to work, and hasn't been used in the special run line since 2014.

Next comes the animal mold, which we saw a teaser for a couple of days ago. I still don't know what it could be - any of the wild animal or livestock molds would be too bizarre (at least for me), and the dog molds are too old/unpopular. I'm going to go with the Charolais Bull just because (last used in 2012, so he could conceivably appear again, though unlikely).

With that, we're already at the end of the list - the only thing left is the surprise model. Here's a list of previous years' surprise molds:

2009 - Quarter Horse Gelding
2010 - none
2011 - Ethereal
2012 - Flash
2013 - Roxy
2014 - Nokota
2015 - Lonesome Glory
2016 - Esprit
2017 - Latigo
2018 - Smarty Jones

For some reason, I didn't predict the blindingly obvious choice of Smarty Jones for the 2018 surprise. Maybe I thought it was too obvious? Either way, I messed up big-time there. Maybe I'll be able to redeem myself this year? As usual, the surprise model for the current year tends to be pulled from the pool of auction models from the previous year, so it'll probably be one of those.

After a quick look at the 2018 auction models, the top contenders for the surprise model would be Wyatt, Cigar (dubious), Wixom, Ashquar, Forever Saige and Salinero. I don't think Cigar is really popular enough to appear as the surprise, though. That's honestly a pretty short list, but I think Wyatt is at the top of the list for me - now that we've seen a model on a stand be the surprise, anything goes! He's fairly popular, new-ish, and the only knock against him is that he was used in the special run line way back in 2016. Latigo was the surprise in 2017 after appearing in the special run line in 2014, though, so I don't think that eliminates Wyatt. Unless I see something to change my mind, my prediction is on Wyatt (which would be easy on my pocketbook, since I don't collect him). The only question is, will they use a mold on a stand two years in a row? I guess we'll find out.

So, those are all the predictions I can think of so far. Here's a recap:

Pepper (Clydesdale Mare)
Quill (SCO)
Diana (Roxy)
Dundee
Emerson
Moody Andalusian
Charolais Bull?
Wyatt

No idea what colors any of the remaining models will be, except the remaining non-decorator models will probably be solid colors since we've already gotten a pinto on Pepper and an Appaloosa on Quill. As usual, we'll probably see a solid, an Appaloosa, one or two pintos and a decorator on the surprise mold - they really need to mix that up a little bit.

That's all I've got for today. I'll post the rest of my predictions at some point - hopefully soon, but I need more time to ponder on what they could be. On a good note, we've only got 4 months to go until Breyerfest is upon us once again! Huzzah!

Looking to the Future: 2019 Vintage Club

Hello, readers! It's that time of the year again; the time when I speculate about next year's Vintage Club offerings, because news is scarce and there isn't much else to talk about. I'm hoping my predictions this year are less dismal than last year - I struck out on pretty much everything last year.

I'll start by again posting this old photo that was sent out to VC members a few years ago:



I'm borrowing from previous posts here, so here goes:

So far, club members have seen the following models from the photo above:

Amigo, the charcoal Adios;
Halo, the Appaloosa-Performance-Horse-colorway on the Stretch Morgan;
Commander, the smoke Five Gaiter;
Denim (Diamonds?), the Copenhagen pinto Shetland Pony;
and Kiowa, the Indian Pony pinto on the Jumping Horse mold.

Molds that appear in the photo, but were used in the VC in other colors, include the Running Stallion, Man o' War, Quarter Horse Gelding, the Belgian, Semi-Rearing Mustang, Fighting Stallion, Running Foal (with Mare), the Western Prancing Horse and the Grazing Mare (with Foal).

At this point, it's easier to list molds from the photo that haven't appeared in the VC yet. They include the Western Horse, Longhorn Bull (not sure why he's even in the photo, honestly) and the Thoroughbred Mare and Nursing Foal.

Longtime VC members may note that last year's VC was a bit of a departure from the norm, and that departure continued in a big way this year. We had a modern mold in the lineup for the first time (the Weather Girl gambler's choice) and the optional model for the year returned to being produced on a vintage mold rather than a modern mold (the Semi-Rearing Mustang vote contest winner). In addition, the San Domingo used in this year's club had a modern paint job. So it may be safe to assume this trend may continue into next year, which really throws a wrench into my predictions. But I'll start with the vintage molds.

These are the vintage Breyer molds that haven't been used in the club yet:

Appaloosa Performance Horse, Black Beauty, the Black Stallion, Bolya/Halla, Brighty, Buckshot, the Donkey, El Pastor, the FAM and FAF, the Foundation Stallion, the Fury Prancer, Galiceno, Haflinger, the Hanoverian, Justin Morgan, the Lying Down Foal, Midnight Sun, Morganglanz, the Pacer, Phantom Wings, Phar Lap, the POA, possibly the PAF, Quarter Horse Yearling, the Race Horse, Saddlebred Weanling, the Scratching Foal, Sea Star, the Shire Mare, Smoky, the Stock Horse Stallion, Mare and Foal, Stud Spider, the Trakehner, the Western Horse and the Western Pony.

For reason that should be obvious by now, I think Midnight Sun, the Donkey, Sea Star and Phantom Wings can all be eliminated from contention. I'm iffy about Bolya/Halla being used either, as the mold has been permanently altered from its Halla configuration. Does its '90s iteration still count as vintage? Who knows.

 As for which molds will make the cut, I'm baffled that we're coming up on our seventh year of the club and the Western Horse, Breyer's oldest mold, still hasn't been used. He's definitely on the list, along with Justin Morgan and, as always, the Thoroughbred Mare and Foal in glossy alabaster. I think the bonus model will probably return to being a modern mold - perhaps Desatado? He hasn't been used much lately. That still leaves a fourth release - will it be modern? I hope not. I don't plan on joining the VC again next year - if I'm going to lose significant amounts of money reselling the releases I don't want, I might as well just buy the one release I want from the secondary market for an increased cost. If the fourth release is vintage, I'm going to go with the Foundation Stallion, but modern could be anything. Silver, maybe? That would drive all the non-vintage Silver collectors crazy, but imagine the fun vintage colors they could put him on. The gnashing of teeth would be visible from space!

As for the Stablemate, it was a modern mold again this year, so for lack of better ideas I'll go with the G3 TWH for the sake of randomness.

So, those are my predictions for the year. I'm still crossing my fingers, as always, for the alabaster Thoroughbred Mare and Foal. Hope springs eternal! I hope we find out next year's models soon.

More Bad Breyerfest Predictions

As a follow-up to Tuesday's post, I present the rest of my Breyerfest special run predictions! This post will cover the rest of the special runs typically seen at Breyerfest, including raffle models, prize models, pop-up-tent stuff, etc. Disclaimer: I'm bad at predicting things, so most of these are probably wrong. I'm not going to try to predict colors, either, because I'm probably wrong anyway. So, on with the show!

Raffle models - Bristol (steeplechaser anyone?), Forever Saige

Diorama contest prize: Phar Lap

Live show glossy prizes: Empres, Latigo Dun It

Live show reserve grand: Adios
Live show grand: Roxy

Custom contest grand prize: Bristol in bay
Custom contest runners-up Stablemates: Whatever the 2018 PC Stablemate is (mini bay Bristol)

Costume contest prize: glossy Brass Hat (as usual)

1-Day Stablemates: Mirado, G4 Driving Horse, G2 Appaloosa, G4 Endurance Arabian

Volunteer Model: Geronimo

Crystal horse: Make a Wish/Justadream

Pop-up Tent Classic: Bella

Pop-up Tent Stablemate: Mini Brishen (why not?)

Breyerfest 2018 Special Run Predictions

It's that time of year again - time for me to (badly) predict some special runs at Breyerfest! My apologies for being a bit late with this post this year - last year's was published almost three weeks earlier! Oh well.

My track record on these matters is fairly poor; I did manage to successfully predict two of the single-day Stablemates last year, but that was about it. Well, to be fair I did predict the rest of the Premier club molds to be used, but anyone could have done that. Like last year, I'll keep this post's predictions to the special run line items so the post isn't super-long.

We already know two of this year's special runs - Straight Bet and Dead Heat. That leaves six other models for the special run line. We can discount any molds used in last year's lineup, so that disqualifies Shannondell, the Semi-Rearing Mustang, Valegro, Geronimo, Yasmin, Latigo and the Cow. It's probably safe to discount molds from 2016 as well, so that eliminates Silver, Esprit, Make a Wish, Wyatt, Bobby Jo, Hermosa and Corazon and the Brahma Bull.

The trend for the last few years has been for Breyer to use at least one, and probably more (or all) of the previous year's Premier Club molds in the special run line. This year we've already seen Duende as Straight Bet. However, True North is appearing as Icabad Crane in the Breyer Store, so he won't be in the special run line. We'll probably still see Carina and Selene, though (they aren't racing molds, but as we've already seen with Duende, they'll probably just give them a racing-themed name). Here's a quick rundown of previous years' mare and foal special runs:

2010 - Stage Mom and Child Star
2011 - Hansel and Gretel (classics)
2012 - none
2013 - Naomi and Wynonna
2014 - Kodiak and Denali (bears)
2015 - none
2016 - Mamacita and Chico
2017 - none

So I'd say it's likely we'll see them in the special run lines, and those are the easy predictions to get out of the way. What else might we see? Last year we had an old mold (the Semi-Rearing Mustang). Might we see another of those? I almost wonder if they'll use Adios for something, since he was based on a Standardbred racehorse. I could get behind that, except he was used in the special run line as recently as 2014. Would they use him again so soon? I'd suspect he'd be a raffle or prize model before being in the special run line. Looking at some of the other mold possibilities...maybe we'll see a Big Ben? He was last used in 2011 and his mold is 21 years old this year. I don't think we're likely to see many other Moody molds this year, so I think maybe we'll see him in the special run line.

There will also probably be a decorator of some sort, but I have no idea what sort of racing-themed decorator. Who knows, maybe Breyer will mix things up and not have a decorator this year. My guess would be Smarty, but we're already getting Ruffian in the lineup, and she's on a base. Would Breyer put two models on bases in the special run line in the same year? I guess we have precedent with Rushmore and Heartland in 2007. I guess I'll go with Smarty for the decorator, but I'm not very confident about it.

And then you have the animal. Dogs and goats are popular with racetrack people, but the Mountain Goat mold was used in 2011, so I'm not sure it would get used again anytime soon. Maybe the Bighorn Ram? They did use it for a micro-run in 2016; maybe they have some extra bodies lying around that need to be used. None of the dog molds are anything I'd expect to see hanging around a racetrack. Too bad they don't have a Greyhound mold, eh? I think the conclusion here is that Breyer needs some new animal molds. I just don't see how Breyer could tie in any of the bovine molds or any of the other wildlife molds.

I guess there is an Alpine Goat and a Miniature Sicilian Donkey among the Companion Animal molds, but I don't think either of them is a large enough scale to appear in the special run line unless they're part of a set, which might be plausible. Maybe in a three-piece set with the Jack Russell Terrier? Except the JRT was used at Breyerfest last year. That was a Store Store special, though, so maybe they'd use it in the special run line? I guess one of the Trad goats seems more likely.

As for the surprise, I'm stumped about that as well. Here's a list of previous years' surprise models:

2009 - Quarter Horse Gelding
2010 - none
2011 - Ethereal
2012 - Flash
2013 - Roxy
2014 - Nokota
2015 - Lonesome Glory
2016 - Esprit
2017 - Latigo

I'm pretty sure absolutely no one thought last year's surprise model would be on Latigo. I thought it would be the Moody Andalusian, myself. But the surprise model tends to be on a mold that doesn't appear anywhere else in the Breyerfest lineup, not even in the live auction. And the surprise mold for each year frequently appears in the live auction the previous year. This holds true for the Latigo surprise - there was a Latigo in the 2016 live auction. There was an Esprit in the 2015 live auction, Lonesome Glory in 2014, and so on.

So, taking a quick look at 2017's auction models, likely candidates would be (in my opinion) the Show Jumping Warmblood, Idocus, Yasmin and maybe Desatado. I doubt Breyer would use an older mold (the QHG was older, but that "surprise" was known ahead of time), and many of the others from last year had already been surprise models or would be way too out of left field - Shannondell, the Fell Pony, etc.  I'm hopeful that the name of the surprise will provide something of a clue, but I'm not confident about that either. I feel like Yasmin would be a good candidate, so I'm going to go with her for the surprise until/unless something disproves it somewhere down the line.

We're still short one model, so for the sake of randomness I'm going to throw in Giselle, because she hasn't been in the special run line since 2010 and she'd make a nice addition to the lineup.

That's all I can manage to come up with so far. Here's a recap:

Duende (Straight Bet)
Ruffian (Dead Heat)
Carina and Selene
Big Ben
Smarty Jones
Giselle
Bighorn Ram?
Yasmin

I'm not even going to try to predict colors on these, except for the usual solid/pinto/Appaloosa/more different pinto pattern they've been using for the surprise models. I'm probably wrong on most of these guesses anyway, but hopefully we get more information soon. I feel like we know a lot more about this year's Breyerfest releases than we did at this time last year, so that's something. Still crossing my fingers for a Rose Hambletonian in plastic, though!

Breyerfest Predictions: ...Better Luck Next Time

The live show glossy prize models were revealed last week on the live show Yahoo group - they'll be Valegro and Banks Vanilla. Shucks...that means I'll have to try to find a glossy Valegro for a non-ridiculous price later (probably not going to happen). So, now that most of the special runs have been released, today I'm going to bring up my predictions from earlier in the year and discuss where I went wrong, and where I was correct! Let's start with the special run line models. These were my predictions:

Geronimo (already more-or-less revealed)
Yasmin
Shannondell
Elephant
Smarty Jones
Thoroughbred Mare/Nursing Foal
Brishen
Andalusian Stallion

And here's what we're actually getting:

Geronimo - yellow dun
Yasmin - black sabino
Shannondell - bay roan pinto
Holstein Cow - glossy alabaster w/blanket
Semi-Rearing Mustang - glossy bay extended blanket Appaloosa
Valegro - dapple gray
Rejoice - glossy light palomino with henna markings
And, of course, the surprise model, which hasn't been revealed yet.

So, lots of strikeouts there. But I'm going to count the Premier Club mold predictions as a win. Never mind that anyone could have predicted those! That's not the point here. Clearly I need to put more thought into my special run line predictions.

Now then, for the rest of the predictions. To make things easier to read, I'm going to list my original prediction, and then the result in bold. Here we go!

Raffle models - Show Jumping Warmblood, head-down Make a Wish
Actual raffle models: Desatado, True North

Diorama contest prize: Stud Spider
Actual diorama contest prize: El Pastor

Live show glossy prizes: Paint Me a Pepto, Hwin
Actual live show glossies: Valegro, Banks Vanilla

Live show reserve grand: Wyatt
Live show grand: Adios
Actual live show reserve grand: Gem Twist
Actual live show grand: Cleveland Bay

Custom contest grand prize: alternate color 2017 Premier model, probably True North
Custom contest runners-up Stablemates: alternate colors of 2017 Stablemate Club models
Actual custom contest grand prize: True North in bay
Actual custom contest runners-up Stablemate: bay mini Geronimo

Costume contest prize: glossy Nazruddin (not much mystery there)
Actual costume contest prize: yet to be seen, but I don't see any reason for it not to be glossy Nazruddin

1-Day Stablemates: Django, G4 Driving Horse, G2 Warmblood, G2 Thoroughbred
Actual 1-Day Stablemates: Cob Christmas Ornament, G4 Stock Horse, G2 Warmblood, G2 Thoroughbred

Volunteer Model: Croi, since they seem to be using her a lot lately
Actual volunteer model: Not revealed yet. Probably not Croi, since Banks Vanilla is a glossy prize.

Crystal horse: Carltonlima Emma
Actual crystal: Bobby Jo

Pop-up Tent Classic: Polo Pony
Actual Pop-up Tent Classic: Show Arabian

More-different (decorator) Pop-up Tent Classic: Harper
Actual more-different Pop-up Tent Classic: Is the Elephant Classic-sized? Does he count for this?

Pop-up Tent Stablemate: G2 Rearing Arabian
Actual Pop-up Tent Stablemate: Django

Well...at least I got two of the Stablemates right? And there are still a couple of things that haven't been revealed yet. We'll be able to narrow down the surprise horse a lot once they start showing auction models (probably on Friday). Clearly my crystal ball powers need a lot of work. Oh well; it's still fun to try to predict things. Maybe next year I'll do better!

Breyerfest 2017 Predictions 2: Raffle and Prize Boogaloo!

Well, it's time to get out the crystal ball again! In lieu of more exciting news, I'll jot down my predictions for Breyerfest 2017's raffle models, contest prizes and other miscellaneous stuff. I'm probably wrong about most of these, but we'll see in a few months! I'm only predicting molds, not colors or names, because I don't want to put that much thought into something I'm probably wrong about anyway. So, let's get this show on the road!

Raffle models - Show Jumping Warmblood, head-down Make a Wish

Diorama contest prize: Stud Spider

Live show glossy prizes: Paint Me a Pepto, Hwin

Live show reserve grand: Wyatt
Live show grand: Adios

Custom contest grand prize: alternate color 2017 Premier model, probably True North
Custom contest runners-up Stablemates: alternate colors of 2017 Stablemate Club models

Costume contest prize: glossy Nazruddin (not much mystery there)

1-Day Stablemates: Django, G4 Driving Horse, G2 Warmblood, G2 Thoroughbred

Volunteer Model: Croi, since they seem to be using her a lot lately

Crystal horse: Carltonlima Emma

Pop-up Tent Classic: Polo Pony

More-different (decorator) Pop-up Tent Classic: Harper

Pop-up Tent Stablemate: G2 Rearing Arabian

At least one of the store specials leaked on Facebook a couple of days ago - a blue roan Bluegrass Bandit named Repeat the Beat, portrait of the real TWH who jumps (interestingly enough). Breyer posted a sneak peek on the blog today, probably because of the Facebook leak. Here's the peek:



Looks like a blue roan Bluegrass Bandit to me. I'll hold off on more commentary on that until the model is officially revealed. I'm not going to predict other store specials, because they're usually based on guest horses, there isn't always more than one, and there isn't really any way to predict what they'll be ahead of time.

So, those are all I can think of for now - hopefully I got at least a few of them right, though we'll have to wait until Breyerfest itself to see what some of them are. It's going to be a long five months, but worth the wait, I hope!

2/8/2017: Edited to update my prediction for the Classics in the tent. Can't believe I forgot about the Polo Pony!

Breyerfest 2017 Special Run Predictions

Now that we're starting to see Breyerfest 2017 special runs, it's time for me to make some (probably incorrect) predictions about what models we'll end up seeing as Breyerfest SRs. This post will cover special run line items; I'll save other stuff for a later date so this post isn't a mile long.

Firstly,  we can discount any mold that was used last year. So Make a Wish, Silver, Wyatt, Bobby Jo, Forever Saige, Esprit, Hermosa/Corazon and the Brahma Bull are all out. It's probably safe to discount any molds from the 2015 special run line as well, so Huck, Lonesome Glory, Wixom, Croi, Ashquar, the Spanish Fighting Bull, Totilas and the Marwari are out as well (not that anyone thought Marwari or the bulls would be in this year's special run line).

From yesterday's sneak peek, we know that one of the SRs will be on Geronimo. Breyer has established a pattern of using a previous year's Premier mold for at least one Breyerfest SR, and he fulfills that pattern. However, I and a lot of others assumed Yasmin would be used for Breyerfest. Last year's special run line had all three of the previous year's Premier molds in the lineup, so it's still safe to assume Yasmin will also show up in the special run line. As for the animal mold, prevailing opinion says they will use the Elephant, and I have no reason to doubt that.

Last year's Breyerfest had a total of four Premier Club molds in the lineup, including all three of 2015's, so I think it's completely possible we could see a third Premier mold show up. I think Shannondell would be the obvious choice, because he hasn't been used for anything else yet - it's been a while since we've had a mold debut in the Premier Club and then not go into the regular run lineup the following year or be used as a Breyerfest special run (I believe Ashquar would be the most recent example, and even he languished unused until the fall of 2014).

So that's four possibilities, out of a presumed total of eight. Another would be Smarty Jones, using the polo pony configuration; India has a strong connection with polo (apparently modern polo comes from India - thanks, Wikipedia!). The last time Smarty Jones appeared in the Breyerfest lineup was 2007's Rushmore (excluding the 2012 raffle and 2016 Early Bird, both as polo ponies, interestingly enough), so I think he'd be a safe choice.

I'm not sure if we'll get a mare and foal set or not - we don't see one every year. Here's a quick list of the past few years:

2010 - Stage Mom and Child Star
2011 - Hansel and Gretel
2012 - none
2013 - Naomi and Wynonna
2014 - Kodiak and Denali (bears)
2015 - none
2016 - Mamacita and Chico

So it might be safe to assume we won't get a mare and foal set. Which molds would they use, anyway? The most likely candidates would be Giselle and Gilen, unless they Frankenstein together a random mare and random foal. Marabella and Amber, perhaps? The number of foal molds likely to actually get used is fairly small. Bluegrass Bandit and Gilen, maybe? I mean, they might use the Thoroughbred Mare and Nursing Foal, which I wouldn't be opposed to, but it doesn't seem likely. There are Thoroughbred horses in India, though (legacy of its history as a British colony?), so it might be doable.

...Actually, I like that. I'm going to add the Thoroughbred Mare and Nursing Foal to my list as the mare and foal set.

So that just leaves the decorator and the surprise. I have no clue what a decorator relating to India would look like - perhaps something similar to last year's surprise Esprit decorator, except with mandalas? I would think it would be something brightly colored, maybe with henna-like designs. It might be on the Brishen mold, if we think Breyer will use four Premier molds again. Or maybe a Goffert, since he hasn't been used at Breyerfest since 2014, and not in the special run line since 2010? I wouldn't mind seeing a Ruffian either, though, and she was last in the special run line in 2007. So many possibilities! I think Brishen will go on my final list, though.

As for the surprise, the precedent for most, if not all, previous surprise models has been that it's something that doesn't get used anywhere else in the lineup, not even as an auction model (excluding Ethereal, from 2011). Here's a quick listing of the previous surprise models:

2009 - Quarter Horse Gelding
2010 - none
2011 - Ethereal (the one exception)
2012 - Flash
2013 - Roxy
2014 - Nokota
2015 - Lonesome Glory
2016 - Esprit

My gut feeling for this year's surprise model is the Moody Andalusian. Not real sure why, except the lineup usually includes at least two Moody molds and I only have one so far. We'll see if the Andy shows up in some other capacity this year - until then, he's on the list. So, here's my final list:

Geronimo (already more-or-less revealed)
Yasmin
Shannondell
Elephant
Smarty Jones
Thoroughbred Mare/Nursing Foal
Brishen
Andalusian Stallion

As for what colors any of these will come in...I have no idea. Uh...here's another list.

Geronimo - dun
Yasmin - gray (glossy)
Shannondell - bay with more sabino than Shannondell?
Elephant - more-different gray? Or white? (glossy)
Smarty - Chestnut pinto
TB Mare/Foal - Black/baby bay (matte/glossy split)
Brishen - already covered (glossy)
Andy - buckskin, red dun, dapple gray frame overo, red bay tobiano, in matte/glossy finishes

Probably terribly, horribly wrong on those, but time will tell. Hopefully some of these turn out to be correct, but if not - oh well. Breyerfest is hands-down my favorite event of the year, so as long as I get to attend I'll be happy. Hopefully we get to find out more soon!

Edited 2/5/2017 to add matte/glossy finishes and the matte/glossy split to the color predictions.