Breyerfest 2018 Special Run Predictions

It's that time of year again - time for me to (badly) predict some special runs at Breyerfest! My apologies for being a bit late with this post this year - last year's was published almost three weeks earlier! Oh well.

My track record on these matters is fairly poor; I did manage to successfully predict two of the single-day Stablemates last year, but that was about it. Well, to be fair I did predict the rest of the Premier club molds to be used, but anyone could have done that. Like last year, I'll keep this post's predictions to the special run line items so the post isn't super-long.

We already know two of this year's special runs - Straight Bet and Dead Heat. That leaves six other models for the special run line. We can discount any molds used in last year's lineup, so that disqualifies Shannondell, the Semi-Rearing Mustang, Valegro, Geronimo, Yasmin, Latigo and the Cow. It's probably safe to discount molds from 2016 as well, so that eliminates Silver, Esprit, Make a Wish, Wyatt, Bobby Jo, Hermosa and Corazon and the Brahma Bull.

The trend for the last few years has been for Breyer to use at least one, and probably more (or all) of the previous year's Premier Club molds in the special run line. This year we've already seen Duende as Straight Bet. However, True North is appearing as Icabad Crane in the Breyer Store, so he won't be in the special run line. We'll probably still see Carina and Selene, though (they aren't racing molds, but as we've already seen with Duende, they'll probably just give them a racing-themed name). Here's a quick rundown of previous years' mare and foal special runs:

2010 - Stage Mom and Child Star
2011 - Hansel and Gretel (classics)
2012 - none
2013 - Naomi and Wynonna
2014 - Kodiak and Denali (bears)
2015 - none
2016 - Mamacita and Chico
2017 - none

So I'd say it's likely we'll see them in the special run lines, and those are the easy predictions to get out of the way. What else might we see? Last year we had an old mold (the Semi-Rearing Mustang). Might we see another of those? I almost wonder if they'll use Adios for something, since he was based on a Standardbred racehorse. I could get behind that, except he was used in the special run line as recently as 2014. Would they use him again so soon? I'd suspect he'd be a raffle or prize model before being in the special run line. Looking at some of the other mold possibilities...maybe we'll see a Big Ben? He was last used in 2011 and his mold is 21 years old this year. I don't think we're likely to see many other Moody molds this year, so I think maybe we'll see him in the special run line.

There will also probably be a decorator of some sort, but I have no idea what sort of racing-themed decorator. Who knows, maybe Breyer will mix things up and not have a decorator this year. My guess would be Smarty, but we're already getting Ruffian in the lineup, and she's on a base. Would Breyer put two models on bases in the special run line in the same year? I guess we have precedent with Rushmore and Heartland in 2007. I guess I'll go with Smarty for the decorator, but I'm not very confident about it.

And then you have the animal. Dogs and goats are popular with racetrack people, but the Mountain Goat mold was used in 2011, so I'm not sure it would get used again anytime soon. Maybe the Bighorn Ram? They did use it for a micro-run in 2016; maybe they have some extra bodies lying around that need to be used. None of the dog molds are anything I'd expect to see hanging around a racetrack. Too bad they don't have a Greyhound mold, eh? I think the conclusion here is that Breyer needs some new animal molds. I just don't see how Breyer could tie in any of the bovine molds or any of the other wildlife molds.

I guess there is an Alpine Goat and a Miniature Sicilian Donkey among the Companion Animal molds, but I don't think either of them is a large enough scale to appear in the special run line unless they're part of a set, which might be plausible. Maybe in a three-piece set with the Jack Russell Terrier? Except the JRT was used at Breyerfest last year. That was a Store Store special, though, so maybe they'd use it in the special run line? I guess one of the Trad goats seems more likely.

As for the surprise, I'm stumped about that as well. Here's a list of previous years' surprise models:

2009 - Quarter Horse Gelding
2010 - none
2011 - Ethereal
2012 - Flash
2013 - Roxy
2014 - Nokota
2015 - Lonesome Glory
2016 - Esprit
2017 - Latigo

I'm pretty sure absolutely no one thought last year's surprise model would be on Latigo. I thought it would be the Moody Andalusian, myself. But the surprise model tends to be on a mold that doesn't appear anywhere else in the Breyerfest lineup, not even in the live auction. And the surprise mold for each year frequently appears in the live auction the previous year. This holds true for the Latigo surprise - there was a Latigo in the 2016 live auction. There was an Esprit in the 2015 live auction, Lonesome Glory in 2014, and so on.

So, taking a quick look at 2017's auction models, likely candidates would be (in my opinion) the Show Jumping Warmblood, Idocus, Yasmin and maybe Desatado. I doubt Breyer would use an older mold (the QHG was older, but that "surprise" was known ahead of time), and many of the others from last year had already been surprise models or would be way too out of left field - Shannondell, the Fell Pony, etc.  I'm hopeful that the name of the surprise will provide something of a clue, but I'm not confident about that either. I feel like Yasmin would be a good candidate, so I'm going to go with her for the surprise until/unless something disproves it somewhere down the line.

We're still short one model, so for the sake of randomness I'm going to throw in Giselle, because she hasn't been in the special run line since 2010 and she'd make a nice addition to the lineup.

That's all I can manage to come up with so far. Here's a recap:

Duende (Straight Bet)
Ruffian (Dead Heat)
Carina and Selene
Big Ben
Smarty Jones
Giselle
Bighorn Ram?
Yasmin

I'm not even going to try to predict colors on these, except for the usual solid/pinto/Appaloosa/more different pinto pattern they've been using for the surprise models. I'm probably wrong on most of these guesses anyway, but hopefully we get more information soon. I feel like we know a lot more about this year's Breyerfest releases than we did at this time last year, so that's something. Still crossing my fingers for a Rose Hambletonian in plastic, though!