Breyerfest 2020 Predictions

Wow, I guess I'm getting an early start on Breyerfest predictions this year. Well, when you're plowing through the winter doldrums (and snow), you have to liven things up somehow. So let's get cracking! I did do some copy/pasting from my old predictions posts here, so if anything looks familiar, that's probably why.

I'm not terribly good at predicting things in advance, especially since Breyer likes to play fast and loose with their "themes." But I'll give it my best shot!

While none of this year's eight releases for the special run line have been revealed, it's safe to assume there'll  be at least one or two Premier Club molds in the mix. It's glaringly obvious that Rhian and Cadell, the Welsh mare and foal set from last year, will appear. Georg will probably appear as well - but not Hamilton, since the rumor is he'll appear as one of the store specials. We can definitely count on not seeing any molds used in the last two years, so that knocks  Flash, the Elk, Smarty Jones, Ruffian, Duende, Carina and Selene, the Proud Arabian Mare, Lonesome Glory, Emerson, Weather Girl, the St. Bernard, the American Saddlebred Stallion, the Moody Andalusian, Roxy, Smart Chic Olena and the Clydesdale Mare out of contention.

If Rhian and Cadell are used, they'll fulfill the mare and foal set that usually - but not always - appears at Breyerfest, so I won't speculate much about that.

I'm guessing the decorator will be something green with shamrocks or Celtic motifs. Maybe on Ethereal? He hasn't been used at Breyerfest since 2011, so it's possible.

As for the animal mold, the prevailing thought online is that it'll be some kind of bull, which I'd agree with - I don't know if any of Breyer's other animal molds would really fit the theme - not that Breyer really adheres to it that much. Or possibly a deer family? It doesn't seem likely, but you never know.

So that's four of the eight. What else? I'm ruling out Brishen for the special run line, since I already predicted Georg and I don't think we'd see two draft models. We still need a vintage mold, though - maybe the Jumping Horse, as some kind of Irish Thoroughbred? Or possibly the Cantering Welsh Pony. Seems weak, but nothing else is really coming to mind. What more recent molds might appear? Possibly Idocus? There's not a whole lot to choose from that fits the theme - not that Breyer cares, since they can just do whatever mold they want and give it some vaguely-Celtic name afterward. Not that I'm bitter or anything. I think I'll throw Big Ben in there just for kicks.

All that leaves us is the surprise model. Here's a list of previous surprises:

2009 - Quarter Horse Gelding
2010 - none
2011 - Ethereal
2012 - Flash
2013 - Roxy
2014 - Nokota
2015 - Lonesome Glory
2016 - Esprit
2017 - Latigo
2018 - Smarty Jones
2019 - Moody Andalusian

The surprise model is usually something that appeared in the live auction the previous year, but Breyer broke this streak last year  by using the Moody Andalusian. Will they go back to the formula this year? Maybe they realized we figured it out, so they had to go in a different direction. I guess I'll just try to pull something from the auction models as usual.

After taking a quick look at the 2019 auction models, I definitely think Croi is at the top of the list. She's popular, but not enough to cause fistfights in the special run line like a lot of newer molds, Othello or Silver. Other contenders include Bobby Jo, Ruffian, Goffert and maybe Totilas - wow, a short list this year. So that's why I'm thinking Croi, since there isn't a whole lot to choose from. Or maybe Brishen? Personally I hope it's Croi, since I wouldn't need any of them.

Here's a recap of what I have so far:

Rhian and Cadell
Georg
Ethereal
A bull (Charolais?)
Cantering Welsh Pony
Idocus
Big Ben
Croi for the surprise

I don't even want to venture a guess as to what color any of them will be, except for the aforementioned green and Celtic for the decorator and the usual surprise formula of solid, pinto, another pinto, Appaloosa, maybe a decorator.

So, that's all I have for today - hopefully they don't make us wait too long for another reveal. Otherwise, it's going to be a long, cold, boring winter!