Breyerfest 2017 Predictions 2: Raffle and Prize Boogaloo!

Well, it's time to get out the crystal ball again! In lieu of more exciting news, I'll jot down my predictions for Breyerfest 2017's raffle models, contest prizes and other miscellaneous stuff. I'm probably wrong about most of these, but we'll see in a few months! I'm only predicting molds, not colors or names, because I don't want to put that much thought into something I'm probably wrong about anyway. So, let's get this show on the road!

Raffle models - Show Jumping Warmblood, head-down Make a Wish

Diorama contest prize: Stud Spider

Live show glossy prizes: Paint Me a Pepto, Hwin

Live show reserve grand: Wyatt
Live show grand: Adios

Custom contest grand prize: alternate color 2017 Premier model, probably True North
Custom contest runners-up Stablemates: alternate colors of 2017 Stablemate Club models

Costume contest prize: glossy Nazruddin (not much mystery there)

1-Day Stablemates: Django, G4 Driving Horse, G2 Warmblood, G2 Thoroughbred

Volunteer Model: Croi, since they seem to be using her a lot lately

Crystal horse: Carltonlima Emma

Pop-up Tent Classic: Polo Pony

More-different (decorator) Pop-up Tent Classic: Harper

Pop-up Tent Stablemate: G2 Rearing Arabian

At least one of the store specials leaked on Facebook a couple of days ago - a blue roan Bluegrass Bandit named Repeat the Beat, portrait of the real TWH who jumps (interestingly enough). Breyer posted a sneak peek on the blog today, probably because of the Facebook leak. Here's the peek:



Looks like a blue roan Bluegrass Bandit to me. I'll hold off on more commentary on that until the model is officially revealed. I'm not going to predict other store specials, because they're usually based on guest horses, there isn't always more than one, and there isn't really any way to predict what they'll be ahead of time.

So, those are all I can think of for now - hopefully I got at least a few of them right, though we'll have to wait until Breyerfest itself to see what some of them are. It's going to be a long five months, but worth the wait, I hope!

2/8/2017: Edited to update my prediction for the Classics in the tent. Can't believe I forgot about the Polo Pony!

Coco is now available!

Coco, the first release of the 2017 Stablemate Club, is now ready to order!


I'm a little irked that they released her today, when they could have done it yesterday so I could combine shipping with Rainier. Either that or I should have waited a day to order my Rainier, but it's not like I'm psychic, right? At least we didn't have to wait until the last week of February to order her - I'll have to content myself with that. Let's hope they're good, quality-wise. Last year's Primrose left a lot to be desired with the nose issues and problems with the paint job.

Our Coco models will be for sale, sadly - she's pretty, but I don't collect the G1 Stablemates. Bring on the rest of the releases! Only two short months until we find out what the next one is - I'm looking forward to it!

The Rainier emails have gone out!

And I was drawn on two accounts! Yay! This beauty will be coming home to join his 18 brothers!

 

I have a really poor track record for getting drawn for the more popular web specials - most of the time it seems I don't get drawn unless it's for something nobody else likes. So, I'm ecstatic that I won twice! I'm hoping I can trade the second Rainier for something nice, possibly other web specials I missed out on in the past. Fingers crossed!

In the meantime, I'll be waiting for my Rainiers to wing their way in my direction - he is so beautiful and I was sure I'd never be drawn for him. Congratulations to all the other lucky winners!

So I wonder what we'll get in the series next? Perhaps some type of pink/purple sunset decorator, named Purple Mountain Majesties? Glossy, of course. But probably not, since Rainier was our mountain. Or a nice blond sorrel or frosted buttermilk buckskin, on Smarty or Carrick, named Amber Waves of Grain? Ooh, ooh! Weather Girl in glossy alabaster, named Alabaster Cities Gleam! Please, Breyer? That's what I'm hoping for, anyway. We'll have wait and see!

Featured Model - 2/4/2017, JC Penney Missouri Fox Trotter

Hello, readers, and welcome to another installment of Featured Model, the weekly blog event where I pick a model from my collection, give some stats on it and provide commentary about it. This week's model is...the JC Penney SR Missouri Fox Trotter!


 

This handsome guy was part of a set with a bay Bluegrass Bandit and flaxen chestnut Saddlebred Weanling issued by JC Penney in 2009. He was produced on the Missouri Fox Trotter mold sculpted by Kathleen Moody. Breyer never seemed to release production numbers for any of the JC Penney SRs for some reason, so I don't know how many of these guys were produced. He is definitely attractive, though!

Gray is pretty much my favorite horse color, so I may be a bit biased, but I think this color looks really nice on him. It would be a little nicer if his tail had more shading, but as-is he's perfectly acceptable. I love his ribbon colors, too! Since he didn't come with an official name, I call him "Smoke Screen."

The original Iron Metal Chief is another one of the few remaining models from my old "carpet herd" that I still have. My parents gave him to me for Christmas '97 and he was one of my favorites to play with (black was my favorite horse color at the time). I still remember how sad I was when I read about the real horse's passing in JAH - they had done an article about him earlier in the year and I thought he was so beautiful.

I mainly collect the MFT out of nostalgia - in retrospect, his tail is a little ridiculous, and his pose precludes him from being used as anything other than a Missouri Fox Trotter. He does have a nice face, though. There have been a lot of nice colors issued on him over the years - Arosa for one, and Masquerade for another - the first Connoisseur model I was drawn for (and last until 2011, as I stopped entering drawings after him due to lack of funds and didn't try again until I was drawn for Swirling Sky). It still amuses me how much they must have liked the Masquerade design - how many OOAK models have we seen on him now with that pattern? Seems like there have been several. Of course, my favorite is this one - I have a weakness for rainbow anything.

Off and on I toy with the idea of selling off my MFTs, but after multiple collection purges, they're still here. I forget exactly how many I have now, but they're among the more populous molds in my collection. One never knows what the future holds, but it was nice that they used him at Chasing the Chesapeake (as confusing as a MFT in New England was). Maybe it means they'll use him for something else really nice in the near future? We'll have to wait and see.

Saffron has been revealed!

The first Breyerfest special run is now up, and it's...Saffron!



As we all suspected, Saffron is on the new Geronimo mold. I like him! The blog describes him thusly:

Saffron is a minimal splash Paint in yellow dun on the Geronimo mold (#733), which was first released last year as a part of the 2016 Premier Collection. Saffron has leg bars and a majestic dorsal stripe and his coat has a bit of a pearly-sheen. Our first BreyerFest Gateway to India Special Run model has a touch of the iconic golden-yellow color and lives up to his namesake.

 

He's certainly handsome. I can't wait to get one! I'm especially looking forward to seeing what his "pearly-sheen" is. I love pearly! This is definitely a promising start to our Breyerfest lineup. I hope we get to see more soon!

The first web special of the year is up, and it's a doozy!

This year's web special theme is revealed, and it's...America the Beautiful! Yay, patriotism!



I suppose it was only a matter of time until Othello got used again.  He was a web special in 2008 (the highly-sought-after Silver Snow) and hasn't been seen again since. At least this is a release they won't have to worry about selling out of; the mold has been very popular since its release. Needless to say, my husband and I are entering on our accounts, and I'm thinking about setting up another account for the dog. Gah! Here's another pic.



Rainier is a must-have for me, so I'll be crossing all my applicable appendages that one of us gets drawn for him, because I assume the secondary market prices will be insane. And he really is quite handsome - blue roan without being a rehash of Saltire. I kind of wish his mane and tail were pearly, though. Not sure what you'd show him as, but that's not important (for me). Good luck to all who enter for him!

Breyerfest 2017 Special Run Predictions

Now that we're starting to see Breyerfest 2017 special runs, it's time for me to make some (probably incorrect) predictions about what models we'll end up seeing as Breyerfest SRs. This post will cover special run line items; I'll save other stuff for a later date so this post isn't a mile long.

Firstly,  we can discount any mold that was used last year. So Make a Wish, Silver, Wyatt, Bobby Jo, Forever Saige, Esprit, Hermosa/Corazon and the Brahma Bull are all out. It's probably safe to discount any molds from the 2015 special run line as well, so Huck, Lonesome Glory, Wixom, Croi, Ashquar, the Spanish Fighting Bull, Totilas and the Marwari are out as well (not that anyone thought Marwari or the bulls would be in this year's special run line).

From yesterday's sneak peek, we know that one of the SRs will be on Geronimo. Breyer has established a pattern of using a previous year's Premier mold for at least one Breyerfest SR, and he fulfills that pattern. However, I and a lot of others assumed Yasmin would be used for Breyerfest. Last year's special run line had all three of the previous year's Premier molds in the lineup, so it's still safe to assume Yasmin will also show up in the special run line. As for the animal mold, prevailing opinion says they will use the Elephant, and I have no reason to doubt that.

Last year's Breyerfest had a total of four Premier Club molds in the lineup, including all three of 2015's, so I think it's completely possible we could see a third Premier mold show up. I think Shannondell would be the obvious choice, because he hasn't been used for anything else yet - it's been a while since we've had a mold debut in the Premier Club and then not go into the regular run lineup the following year or be used as a Breyerfest special run (I believe Ashquar would be the most recent example, and even he languished unused until the fall of 2014).

So that's four possibilities, out of a presumed total of eight. Another would be Smarty Jones, using the polo pony configuration; India has a strong connection with polo (apparently modern polo comes from India - thanks, Wikipedia!). The last time Smarty Jones appeared in the Breyerfest lineup was 2007's Rushmore (excluding the 2012 raffle and 2016 Early Bird, both as polo ponies, interestingly enough), so I think he'd be a safe choice.

I'm not sure if we'll get a mare and foal set or not - we don't see one every year. Here's a quick list of the past few years:

2010 - Stage Mom and Child Star
2011 - Hansel and Gretel
2012 - none
2013 - Naomi and Wynonna
2014 - Kodiak and Denali (bears)
2015 - none
2016 - Mamacita and Chico

So it might be safe to assume we won't get a mare and foal set. Which molds would they use, anyway? The most likely candidates would be Giselle and Gilen, unless they Frankenstein together a random mare and random foal. Marabella and Amber, perhaps? The number of foal molds likely to actually get used is fairly small. Bluegrass Bandit and Gilen, maybe? I mean, they might use the Thoroughbred Mare and Nursing Foal, which I wouldn't be opposed to, but it doesn't seem likely. There are Thoroughbred horses in India, though (legacy of its history as a British colony?), so it might be doable.

...Actually, I like that. I'm going to add the Thoroughbred Mare and Nursing Foal to my list as the mare and foal set.

So that just leaves the decorator and the surprise. I have no clue what a decorator relating to India would look like - perhaps something similar to last year's surprise Esprit decorator, except with mandalas? I would think it would be something brightly colored, maybe with henna-like designs. It might be on the Brishen mold, if we think Breyer will use four Premier molds again. Or maybe a Goffert, since he hasn't been used at Breyerfest since 2014, and not in the special run line since 2010? I wouldn't mind seeing a Ruffian either, though, and she was last in the special run line in 2007. So many possibilities! I think Brishen will go on my final list, though.

As for the surprise, the precedent for most, if not all, previous surprise models has been that it's something that doesn't get used anywhere else in the lineup, not even as an auction model (excluding Ethereal, from 2011). Here's a quick listing of the previous surprise models:

2009 - Quarter Horse Gelding
2010 - none
2011 - Ethereal (the one exception)
2012 - Flash
2013 - Roxy
2014 - Nokota
2015 - Lonesome Glory
2016 - Esprit

My gut feeling for this year's surprise model is the Moody Andalusian. Not real sure why, except the lineup usually includes at least two Moody molds and I only have one so far. We'll see if the Andy shows up in some other capacity this year - until then, he's on the list. So, here's my final list:

Geronimo (already more-or-less revealed)
Yasmin
Shannondell
Elephant
Smarty Jones
Thoroughbred Mare/Nursing Foal
Brishen
Andalusian Stallion

As for what colors any of these will come in...I have no idea. Uh...here's another list.

Geronimo - dun
Yasmin - gray (glossy)
Shannondell - bay with more sabino than Shannondell?
Elephant - more-different gray? Or white? (glossy)
Smarty - Chestnut pinto
TB Mare/Foal - Black/baby bay (matte/glossy split)
Brishen - already covered (glossy)
Andy - buckskin, red dun, dapple gray frame overo, red bay tobiano, in matte/glossy finishes

Probably terribly, horribly wrong on those, but time will tell. Hopefully some of these turn out to be correct, but if not - oh well. Breyerfest is hands-down my favorite event of the year, so as long as I get to attend I'll be happy. Hopefully we get to find out more soon!

Edited 2/5/2017 to add matte/glossy finishes and the matte/glossy split to the color predictions.